The UK is likely to already be in recession, according to two economic forecasters, as developments in the eurozone paralyse the country's recovery.
The Ernst & Young ITEM Club and the Centre for Economics and Business Research both believe that gross domestic product shrank in the final quarter of last year and will fall again in the first three months of 2012.
A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of contracting output.
The prospects for the economy in the UK are closely tied to the fate of the eurozone, according to both reports, which is hitting the export trade so crucial to the country's recovery.
Professor Peter Spencer, chief economic adviser to the ITEM Club, said: "Figures for the last quarter of 2011 and the first quarter of this year are likely to show that we are back in recession and we are going to have to wait until this summer before there are any signs of improvement.
"But it's not going to be a repeat of 2009 - we are not going to see a serious double dip."
A Treasury spokeswoman said: "The uncertainty in the euro area continues to have a chilling effect on the UK as well as elsewhere, but there are reasons to be optimistic: business surveys showed the UK service and construction sectors strengthening at the end of 2011, and the Government's credible fiscal plan is helping keep UK interest rates at record lows."
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